Author Chapter 51 (Ad Astra - Scipio to Hannibal)
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Yep no matter how I tried to wrap my head around it, I'm too stupid to understand.
@laiseran the first link you gave had 3 statistics, with 2 of them favoring the point of swapping, and while I don't understand why the last one has such a minor difference and why just knowing simulation would affect it, I do get that the second stat chart supports my point, which is if you don't know which is the right one, then it's still 50/50. I don't get the point of a goat, but I do know that the cup being taken away is shown to not have the grape, which gives confirmed knowledge and eliminates probability on the supposed higher chance, even though from what I can tell knowing and not knowing is the same because if the grape was taken away then it wouldn't matter if the choice was stay/swap.
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Hahaha the Monty Hall problem always reminds me of Brooklyn 99 and Captain Holt's 'BOOOONE?!'
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Don't worry if you don't get the problem. Even Paul Erdos didn't believe it, till a computer program showed it holds true.
Anyways if it helps i just imagine it as getting multiple picks. instead of thinking it as Archimedes revealing one of the cups imagine it as you picking a cup and getting it wrong , then you get a second chance to pick again so effectively you get to pick 2 out of 3 cups. If out of a 100 you pick 98 wrong ones you would think the next one would be right.
the only drawback is that this method is not very mathematically rigorous but it does appeal to the intuition :D